German weekend

[chriscol]

Let'S start positive in the weekend:

2.Bundesliga:

Essen- Trier: Essen -0.5 @ 2.03

Essen although in last place is definetely showing improvement lately. they coming of an away draw (leading till 89 min) and are solid at home anaway. they strengthened their defense with two new players ´during the break, so they should improve on their real weakness. Trier meanwhile got injury problems for tonight's match and is not particular strong away. they are playing a season in the middle of nowhere. so i like that spot for the home team to make a move from last place today.

Köln- Burghausen: Köln -1 @ 1.80

I am not so sure that this will be a solid win. so have in mind that i am a Köln supporter. Maybe my feeling is leading in the wrong direction and i am over anxious. The numbers a clearly towards Köln. They have a very solid home record and have started with an away win, which should boost their confidence. also they lost at Burghausen 2-4 (one of 3 losses) at the beginning of the season, so there might be some kind of revange here. Burghausen meanwhile is struggeling big time the last 6 games especially away and is not coming of a solid opener last week. Köln got a injured defender and a suspended mid-field player, but they have also one new brasilien defender to fill the gap.
Nevertheless i ll give it a shot today, that Köln will regain the top spot with a home win.

BOL to all (working already on tomorrow'S Bundesliga)

 

[jwunderdog]

Chriscol,

With the latest news concerning Refs. fixing games, do you think it will change how they call games?Less pen/more pens, no effect?

 

[chriscol]

i would think that this will have no effect, at least no predictable effect. If a ref is more careful now, it can be wrong too. they will make wrong decisions in the future like in the past. media focus will be more on the refs, but i see no chance for us to profit from this situation....(maybe more favs are covering now, cause betting mafia usually looks for value in high priced dogs).

Funniest story was the game Essen-Köln 2-2. It should be a fixed win for essen and there were strange decisions (one penalty and a redicolous red card for Köln), but it did not work out, cause Köln scored twice in last minute to equalize

 

[scripter]

thnx for info chris much appreciated
I'll try Essen
BOL

 

[scripter]

BTW what do u think about stuttgart and lever ??
Thnx man and keep up very goog work

 

[Avalanche88]

Let'S start positive in the weekend:

2.Bundesliga:

Essen- Trier: Essen -0.5 @ 2.03

Essen although in last place is definetely showing improvement lately. they coming of an away draw (leading till 89 min) and are solid at home anaway. they strengthened their defense with two new players ´during the break, so they should improve on their real weakness. Trier meanwhile got injury problems for tonight's match and is not particular strong away. they are playing a season in the middle of nowhere. so i like that spot for the home team to make a move from last place today.

Köln- Burghausen: Köln -1 @ 1.80

I am not so sure that this will be a solid win. so have in mind that i am a Köln supporter. Maybe my feeling is leading in the wrong direction and i am over anxious. The numbers a clearly towards Köln. They have a very solid home record and have started with an away win, which should boost their confidence. also they lost at Burghausen 2-4 (one of 3 losses) at the beginning of the season, so there might be some kind of revange here. Burghausen meanwhile is struggeling big time the last 6 games especially away and is not coming of a solid opener last week. Köln got a injured defender and a suspended mid-field player, but they have also one new brasilien defender to fill the gap.
Nevertheless i ll give it a shot today, that Köln will regain the top spot with a home win.

BOL to all (working already on tomorrow'S Bundesliga)

Let's bank these Chriscol!!!!

 

[chriscol]

i dont want to count the chicken before it'S over, but it'S already 3-0 Köln after 28. minarty:

 

[AFLGuru]

Gotta love when your team drop EIGHT!!!!

Nice job.

 

[quantumleap]

chris, I think it's time to play Freiburg. I'll have a separate write-up but I'm taking Wolfsburg/Freiburg at under 2.5 and 3. Any thoughts from you?


Nice call on the Köln match.

 

[chriscol]

saturday'S picks will be up in 30 to 40 min.

 

[chriscol]

Saturday

1.Bundesliga

Bielefeld- Hannover: Under 2.5 @1.96 !! 2 units!!

Strongest play of the day.Bielefeld at home is an under machine. 6 of 8 games went under(the other 2 pushed with 3 goals). They dont score much and they have a very solid defense. Hannover had much success with solid defense in the first part of the season. last weeks 0-3 home loss was unusual, but they are also one of the top under teams in league. They have not scores in last 4 matches and last 6 matches avarages an total of 1.6 goals. I'll tide the "Bielefeld-home-game-under-train" once more.

Hamburg- Mainz: Hamburg -1 @ 2.03

Hamburg got it'S momentum from last year stopped in last week's 0-3 loss at München. But then.. you can loose in München anyway. Their key-player Beinlich is back in the line-up for today and i expect them to bounce straight back today at home against awful Mainz. I predicted last week (although the standings did not show it) that Mainz will struggle mightily against relegation. They are the top fade for me this year. That was proven in last weeks home loss, where they usually collect their points. Away they are helpless anyway, loosing last 4 and overall they have only 1 point from last 5 games.

Kaiserslautern- Schalke: Schalke pk,-0.5 @ 1.84

Tough match to cap as Lautern got very good results at home recently and Schalke away. But Schalke is overall the better team and in a game that looks like a draw i like my chance with schalke to get a narrow win and climb to the top of the table.

Leverkusen- Bochum: OVER 3 goals @ 1.943

Leverkusen got the momentum. They had the much needed away win last week. At home they are one of the strongest teams in league anyway. i expect them to make a charge for ECL-Spots again. Bochum meanwhile came back from 0-2 down for a 2-2 draw against Berlin last week, which should boost their confidence a bit. But they are still not a good team this year and should not get a point today against Leverkusen who cannot afford a set-back. As the hdc is a bit too high for me i have a lverkusen parlay a little bit later.
The over is the obvious play here. Leverkusen is a scoring machine at home, but also vulnurable to the goal against as they are usually playing very offensively at home. Bochum is also able to score (as a draw is not enough for them against relegation), but they will conceides goals for sure.

Stuttgart- Nürnberg: Stuttgart -1,-1.5 @ 1.89

Stuttgart coming of an away win played solid in recent home games. they are the much better team here and Nürnberg is struggeling anyway right now. They also started with a very disappointing home loss.

Dortmund- Gladbach: Dortmund -0.5 @ 1.84

Earlier i did not want to make this play as Dortmund is down to 1.65 Or 0.5,1 in most places. i like their chance of a win here. Despite their injury problems they came away with a graet away win at Wolfsburg and are getting wins at home lately. But Gladbach is also on the move in the right direction. i expect a very close game...but the reduced line at pinny (o.5) is definetely a value play.

2-team parlay:
Hamburg to win vs Mainz (1.55) and Leverkusen to win vs Bochum (1.4) for a combined 2.17
Write up see above

!!!! Early play for SUNDAY !!!

Berlin - München : München pk,-0.5 @ 1.88 !! 2 units!!

I like München here anyway as they are the better team, have a good history playing at berlin and are as predicted last week usually very strong and focused after the winter break. What makes it a early play for me is the line move i see. I expect that game too close at -0.5.
This morning there has been news in germany that 3 players from Berlin are involved in the betting scandal. Nando Rafael, Madlund and Simunic.
They should have received money for a cup loss against a 3rd league team earlier this season (decided by a own goal from Madlund). These are just rumors, but with even their captain involved i expect Berlin to get all three players out of the line up for tomorrows game. There will be too much pressure from the media and public if these guys are playing. Madlund is reserve anyway, but Nando i sone of the top strikers and Simunic as captain another key player.
Great value (considering the news) and a pick on München even without the news makes it a very strong early play for me.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

chris, I think it's time to play Freiburg. I'll have a separate write-up but I'm taking Wolfsburg/Freiburg at under 2.5 and 3. Any thoughts from you?


Nice call on the Köln match.

i am not sure. under looks good, but i still dont believe in Freiburg. They will get relegated, but are they weak enough for Wolfsburg to get an away win??? Pk is the right line here. if i had to pick a team i would go with Wolfsburg. The under looks good, but on the other hand that might be a game where both teams score against a weak defense... summarising this it looks like a 1-1 draw to me.

 

[EROL1]

<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>Bielefeld</st1lace></st1:City> - Hannover 96<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

11. Arminia Bielefeld 18 7 3 8 <st1:time Hour="19" Minute="24">19:24</st1:time> 24<o></o>

8. Hannover 96 18 8 4 6 24:19 28<o></o>

Hannover 96 @ 3.10 Bets4all.com <o></o>

Hannover 96 lost against Bayer Leverkusen on the last game day 0:3. They made in the fist 30 minutes a good game with a lot of pressure but the opponent <st1:City><st1lace>Leverkusen</st1lace></st1:City> made a very clever game and they used their chances. <st1:City><st1lace>Bielefeld</st1lace></st1:City> lost on the last game day, too. They made a poor game in Gladbach - they had only a few chances to score a goal and they were really harmless. Today it’s a really interesting match between this two teams - but I think <st1lace>Hannover</st1lace> have today a good chance to win this game. They won their last away-game in <st1:State><st1lace>Hamburg</st1lace></st1:State> and they have a record of <st1:date Month="2" Day="3" Year="2003">3-2-3</st1:date>. <st1:City><st1lace>Bielefeld</st1lace></st1:City> is at the moment not in form - they have a poor record of 0-1-3 of the last 4 games. <st1:City><st1lace>Bielefeld</st1lace></st1:City> have at home a good <st1:date Month="3" Day="3" Year="2002">3-3-2</st1:date> record but for this current odd on <st1lace>Hannover</st1lace> I will try them. <o></o>

 

[chriscol]

SUnday:

2.Bundesliga:

No time for write ups today, but here are the plays.

Saarbrücken- Duisburg: Saarbrücken pk @ 1.98

Oberhausen- Erfurt: Oberhausen -0.5,-1 @ 1.90

Karlsruhe- Frankfurt: Frankfurt pk, -0.5 @ 1.93

BOL to all

 

[quantumleap]

chris:

I forgot to look at Rostock this weekend. I see they are down 0-2 to Bremen at the 38' mark. Hopefully this will serve as a mental reminder.

 

[chriscol]

it's ok that you forgot it. i did not play this for a reason..it's a derby and rostock is dangerous away...it's already 1-2.